Pay Cuts, Non-Restructures, and Trade Talk

I was pleasantly surprised that the Saints were able to secure what appear to be real pay cuts from Ram, Mathieu, and Davis, not just restructures that appear to kick the can down the road. I will give some credit to Loomis, as I did not know he had it in him to play hardball. Cam Jordan's deal last year was much different, not a pay cut, it guaranteed salary for two years to an aging player and in 2024 the Saints are paying $14 million to a player coming off a 2 sack season. They attribute the drop in production to ankle issues, but spent $13 million on Chase Young to replace the sacks they justify paying Jordan $14 million by arguing he will provide again. While Winston, Thomas, and Peat took some form of pay cuts in the 2023 offseason, that was for a player relegated to a backup role, another who had not played regularly in 3 years, and another who looked in 2022 like he would not start for most teams and could not stay healthy, two of which we would have been better off cutting, and one of which only improved when we realized we had been playing him out of position for years, so those did not count in my mind.

I forget whether Maye was offered a pay cut before he was cut. I thought I read that somewhere but can't remember for sure. None the less, it makes sense that if we proposed pay cuts to 3 starters that they accepted, we broached pay cuts with others who did not bite. I don't think any GM is 100% with getting players to take pay cuts when their age, health, and performance decline, so behind the scenes it is likely some Saints have declined pay cuts.

Pay cuts are very useful because they avoid the catch-22 situation of having to choose between taking a massive dead cap hit to cut or trade a player or keeping and restructuring them to save money now knowing that the long term additional cap debt you take on you are overpaying now to kick the can on existing debt. If they agree to a pay cut to a fair salary, you can take advantage of the zero interest financing without paying up the nose for it with an above market salary. Then you can draw down the dead cap hit. While I would like the Saints to get their cap situation better under control and build a war chest of cap space and flexibility for when we are on the brink of championship contention, not go all-in when we are realistically well short of that either way, I do appreciate the zero-interest borrowing ability and the concept of a payment plan to pay down our salary cap debt without a historic collapse. One reason I oppose over-leveraging the salary cap so much is that it forces the team to keep overpaid players because they cannot afford the dead cap to cut them, so zero-interest becomes high interest just paid out in the form of above market salaries and fat extensions for aging players. But if players will take pay cuts to market salaries, being able to draw down the dead cap hits before they retire or move on is an attractive proposition.

But this begs the question, if those players accepted pay cuts, who declined, and what are the consequences. Well, one reward to accepting a pay cut is that typically the present years pay is guaranteed when it is converted to a bonus. A simple restructure does the same thing, ideally for players who still merit their current pay and are not at an age where they might retire soon and create a massive dead cap hit. The risk to a player declining this bargain is that they could be cut and earn nothing, or they could be traded for a 7th round pick and have to move across the country to an uncommitted team just looking to kick the tires that may cut them as well, or view them as a one year rental with a cut imminent the next season.

But the Saints have a few players they still have not restructured despite high salaries. If we are looking at who else might have been offered guarantees and/or an extension in return for a pay cut, this would be where we start the list. With our habit of restructuring every contract the past two seasons, un-restructured contracts could represent some kind of impasse.

Alvin Kamara still has a $10.2m base salary plus small roster bonuses for 2024. Taysom Hill still has a $10m base salary. Juwan Johnson still has a $5.5m base salary. Marshon Lattimore still has that weird option bonus for most of his salary due one week before the start of the regular season. Realistically these are 4 players with high base salaries who have issues with performance, aging, and/or injury recently where the subject of a pay cut could have discussed or still be in discussion. Had any of them agreed to a pay cut, they would have got bonus conversions or guarantees to guarantee their salary for 2024. None of them have gotten that so far. If the Saints asked Mathieu, Davis, and Ram to take pay cuts, its easy to imagine they asked the same of all these players.

What could this mean? For one thing, it could mean that if any of these players struggles in training camp, they could be cut or traded. If Kamara has lost a step in training camp, Miller is looking good, and Kamara still insists on top dollar for an aging running back, he could end up getting the treatment that Cook and Elliott got last year. Taysom Hill makes some exciting plays against poor competition but his production is not consistent, the new offensive coordinator has not made extensive use of wildcat running backs, and Hill is getting very old to take big hits in the NFL. If he struggles in camp or if the Saints draft a mobile backup QB in the mid rounds, Hill could be cut, or traded to Denver, if he resists a pay cut. Juwon Johnson was an exciting young player in 2022, but his production in 2023 was meager. Depending on whether the Saints take a TE in the draft, how Johnson looks in training camp, and how he adjusts to the new system, if he does not win the starting TE job, he could be cut or traded.

Lattimore has two younger competitors for starting edge cornerback: Adebo and Taylor. Lattimore is a legend for Saints fans, a top 5 all time HOF corners mentioned alongside Deion Sanders, because the Saints have never had another very good cornerback who stayed very good for 5 years. But for the rest of the NFL his best PFF score was his rookie season, he has never made an all pro team, he last made a pro bowl team in 2021, he has missed half the games the last two seasons, and his PFF scores have sunk to average. Sure, he is always good for that highlight reel game where he shut down Julio Jones or now Mike Evans, but the next week he gives up a TD to some random receiver, he has never been as consistent as many Saints fans would like to believe. Its very possible the younger Adebo and Taylor could both outplay Lattimore in camp, or simply both play excellent while Lattimore nurses a toe or ankle, and Lattimore could be traded or his option could simply be declined and he could hit free agency in August as an aging corner who missed half his games the past 2 years and is currently nursing an injury. To Saints fans it would make no sense to part with a historically great corner without receiving a 1st round pick, minimum, but to the rest of the league Lattimore was never a great corner, and is just a very good corner on downside of his career like most other franchises have moved on from several times.

The Saints are the oldest team in the NFL. To win it all, a team has to give young players with upside the opportunity to succeed, while getting good value from veteran leaders, not block advancement of young players by overpaying veterans so much they have to be given the starting job to justify it. Sometimes to assess how much value veterans can still provide and how much upside young players have, a team needs competition in training camp and preseason. Hopefully with the push to secure pay cuts from some veterans, and the reluctance so far to restructure players who might have refused pay cuts, the Saints will have a more open competition in training camp and preseason, and the results will be a younger and hungrier team where veterans still have to prove it to establish their leadership. Competition makes everyone better, and if the Saints can resist restructuring these remaining veterans at full price or going on a further shopping spree that leaves them unable to absorb any dead cap hit, they will be able to have more than just a more flexible salary cap in 2025, they will have a hungrier team in 2024.