Let Paulson Adebo Walk

UPDATE, 03/09/2025: Recently Paulson Adebo has posted some videos on social media of him dunking, doing drills, etc. This has gotten some fans excited about his return. Its important to remember that Michael Thomas posted similar videos before each of his returns from injury, dead lifting 500lbs and leaping tall buildings in a single bound. But that's in street clothes with multiple takes with no contact, and Michael Thomas declined with every injury and never fully recovered. The reality is this: believe the x-rays, not tiktok and youtube. Adebo was slow and prone to holding. He was never consistent or elite before the injury. Now he has a metal rod in his leg. He is a bad bet.

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We live in the world of the 24/7 news cycle, where last week and last month are both last century. Sticks and stones will break our bones but words will never hurt us, so the words of last weeks or last months scandals often quickly fade. But football injuries are not words, they are sticks and stones, and they don't care about our news cycles, our fond and faint memories, or our hopes and wishes. But with fading memories, many fans and pundits have begun to argue that the Saints need to resign or extend Paulson Adebo, to fill the void left on the roster by the departure of Marshon Lattimore, and cure what ailed the Saints defense in the final weeks of the season. Give that man the bag they say.

The fact is that retaining Paulson Adebo would be the worst thing that the Saints could do. Just 6 months ago Adebo suffered a scary injury. He broke his femur, the largest bone in the human body. Exactly the same number of defensive backs in NFL history have effectively recovered from stage 4 metastatic pancreatic cancer, symptomatic rabies, mad cow disease, and a broken femur. Zero. While a handful of professional athletes have recovered from a broken femur after 9-12 months, the defensive back position in the NFL which demands maximum speed, change of direction, and the durability to absorb countless additional hits is perhaps the worst position in all of sports to return from such an injury.

Former Viking linebacker E.J. Henderson famously suffered a broken femur late in the 2009 season and returned in 2010 to make the pro bowl, but in 2011 he dealt with chronic pain, playing with a titanium rod in his leg, didn't receive any awards, was only offered to return at salaries near the veteran minimum, and retired after the 2011 season. So even at a less demanding position for speed and agility, the career after recovery was short.

While Paulson Adebo had a solid rookie season in 2021 and a stellar 2023 campaign, its important to remember that he has not been a reliable contributor for the Saints. In 2022 he suffered a sophomore slump, ankle injury, and hamstring injury while Alontae Taylor looked to be the better young edge corner. In 2023 he was arbitrarily given the starting edge corner role over Alontae Taylor by a bad talent evaluator (see Zack Baun) but managed to flourish. But again in 2024 Adebo was having an off year, with a pedestrian 63.3 PFF Grade similar to most Saints backups, and 7 penalties in 7 games including two 30+ yard PI calls. Shortly before he was injured, there were calls for him to be benched.

But the media and some fans with faded memories love a feel good comeback story, and Adebo's injury may have worked in his favor with this crowd. Gone are the memories of his 2024 struggles and past inconsistency, and the only thought is that since the Saints traded an aging injury prone Marshon Lattimore and then continued to lose a bunch of games due to injuries on offense and an aging defense, therefore they must bring back Paulson Adebo to restore the 2023 defenses greatness that carried Derek Carr to a 9-8 record against a historically weak schedule. They feel that based on his 2023 career year, Adebo could be a $15m/yr+ CB, and therefore if his injury allows the Saints to secure him to a long term deal for only $10-12m/yr it could be a blessing in disguise to secure such a generous discount.

The reality is that Paulson Adebo represents the worst choice for a new contract: massive stacked risks.

If everything goes right, Adebo could be worth $15-20m/yr and perhaps the Saints could sign him for $10-12m/yr but to do so, they would likely have to commit to him long term.

But first you have the risk that Adebo is never remotely effective again because of this injury and you lose all the money you spend. No player at his position has ever come back from this injury so that is a big risk.

Then you have the risk that injury at least slows him down, killing the upside. You have to consider that Adebo is a big corner whose struggle has been comitting PI when he is getting beat, so speed and agility is what he can't afford to lose, with a titanium rod in his leg. Adebo's return to the Saints could be Brandon Browner 2.0, a big physical corner who couldn't afford to lose a step to injury, but did.

But even if Adebo returns to form at 100% in 2025, you have the risk of long term decline, like we saw with E.J. Henderson having one career year after the injury, then a mediocre year, then out of the league.

Then you have the risk of new injuries. Some will insist this is the same for all players, but the fact is that Adebo has missed significant time every other season through his pro career. To me, this risk is significant. Such a significant injury as a broken femur is likely to increase his already high risk of other injuries, as he adjusts his mechanics to compensate.

Then you have the risk that Adebo continues to play like he played immediately before the injury, which was at a pedestrian backup level of 63.3 PFF score with abundant penalties in 2024. If the broken femur doesn't change his trajectory at all, you still lose. You need him to improve after the broken femur to get back to where he was in 2023 not where he left off in 2024.

Then you have the risk that if Adebo plays great, thats because its an even numbered year, and he plays like a backup in 2026 and 2028 while he is paid his long term deal. Even if he never injured his femur, you are still talking about paying for a single career year.

Then you have the risk that even if Adebo permanently returns to his 2023 form, that form was a mirage all along. You see, the 2023 Saints Schedule was one of the 3 easiest schedules for any team of this century. And the easiest part about it was the passing offenses the 2023 Saints faced which featured a casting call of backup quarterbacks straight out of a progressive insurance commercial. Adebo may have bordered on being a shut down corner in 2023, but the quarterbacks he shut down included rookie Bryce Young (2x), Desmond Ridder(2x), Gardner Minshew, Tommy DeVito, Joshua Dobbs, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Bagent, and Mac Jones, essentially 10 games against backup-level QBs, and none against the perennial MVP-candidate QBs of the league: Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, Burrow, and Allen. If Paulson Adebo was never an elite corner in the first place, but was simply an average to below average corner having a slightly above average career year amplified to perceived greatness by historically below average competition, then he can't overcome the 6 obstacles above to return to greatness that he never actually achieved. After his strong 2023 season there was reason to wonder if Adebo and other standouts on the defense had really taken the next step or just taken advantage of weak competition, and if you look at Adebo's 2024 encore, where he did face elite QBs, you probably have your answer.

I am not saying there is no hope for Adebo. As a person I am sure he may be great. Oprah would love to talk to Adebo if he comes back, United Healthcare would love to name him a People's Health Champion, he makes a great human interest story. But human interest stories dont win games, especially very expensive ones. The Saints are in a difficult position with their salary cap and roster and need to think with their heads not their hearts. You can't just watch highlight reels to think with your head, you have to look at facts like the nature of the injury, the past injuries, the inconsistency, the most recent play before the injury, and the unique circumstances of a career year against a historically weak lineup of opposing offences. Adebo deserves a second chance at a salary that makes sense for a team not just the player, but he should be able to test his value on the open market to teams where a gamble makes sense, teams looking to win now with salary cap room to spare who are one player away. For the rebuilding Saints he does not make sense as a #1 corner. To win in this league you need guys who can cover Devonte Smith and Xavier Worthy, which is probably not a guy with a rod in his leg. As a roster investment, there are too many risks to invest in a long term deal worth over $10 million a year. The value is more like $5 million a year short term, another team will probably outbid that hoping on the off chance to strike gold in the first year and win it all, and the Saints are not contenders to win it all and don't need to be gambling on a player with an extreme injury, they need to be rebuilding for the future.

What is the alternative to Adebo? Well, Alonte Taylor is still on the roster, on a rookie contract, and was a more effective edge corner than Paulson Adebo in 2022, but was then relegated to slot corner, outside his normal position, by the same coaches who kicked Zach Baun to the curb because they could not figure out how to use him. Taylor has made a few nice sacks on blitzes from the slot, but has been inconsistent in coverage in the slot. In addition to the draft and pursuing healthy free agents, the Saints could simply return Alontae Taylor to his natural position.