UPDATE: At 2-7 with 7 straight losses capped by a loss to the previous worst team in the NFL, the Saints season has obviously gone off the rails. Mickey Loomis needs to fire Dennis Allen now, his ineptitude is an insult to all fans and players. Extending Alvin Kamara was a catastrophic mistake as a rebuilding team does not need an aging QB and Kamara was overpaid by at least 50% above his fair market value (he's not the #2 RB in the NFL) but its time to get a reality check and start the full scale rebuild now. Expect an article soon on how that full scale rebuild IS possible and the people who say we CAN'T cut Carr or other veterans are lying to you or misinformed. Quick summary: The Saints are $61 million over the 2025 salary cap. Designating Derek Carr a post-June-1 cut saves $30 million. Designating Marshon Lattimore a post-June-1 cut saves $18 million. Cutting Ryan Ramczyk saves $6 million. Cutting Khalen Saunders and Jamaal Williams saves a total of $4 million. Restructuring Carl Granderson, Cesar Ruiz, and Erik McCoy saves $18 million. 61-30-18-6-4-18= $15 million under the 2025 cap. There are additional complications but it can be done.

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This 'Cap Wizard' better described as a Cap Voldemort, Sauron, or Night King brought the Saints into the 2022, 2023, and 2024 off-seasons the most over the cap of any team in the league. Now the Saints are $61 million over the 2025 Salary Cap when the next closest team is only $4.5 million over. Years of this 'go for broke' philosophy to max out the salary cap have left the Saints starving for talent and depth, with a roster loaded with has beens and no offensive line. It forced the Saints to restructure players who can no longer compete, kick the can on debt down the road, and compete in an endless cycle of borrowing to pay off debt.

What do we have to show for this? Recent records of 9-8, 7-10, and 9-8  in a historically weak division from 2021-2023 where we consistently outspend all our rivals to finish behind the Bucs, losing pro bowl caliber free agents, buying high on Derek Carr, and becoming the oldest roster in the NFL stagnated by players we can't cut because we can't afford the dead cap. Now our division rivals went through rebuilding, trimmed the fat, got better players, and the Saints are falling apart at 2-5.

Mickey Loomis said we had all the right people in the building. My guess is those people were Jack Daniels, Jim Beam, and Jose Cuervo and they report to his office at 6AM sharp.  Mickey Loomis hand picked career sub-.250 Head Coach Dennis Allen to lead the Saints. He put everything on the line to make Deshaun Watson the highest paid QB in the NFL for the Saints, only to be outbid by Cleveland at the last moment. Failing to sign Watson, Mickey Loomis would not take no for an answer after a 7-10 season with Dennis Allen and went all in on Derek Carr for $150 million to lead the Saints alongside Allen, building the Saints on the model of the worst Oakland Raiders team in recent memory. Mickey Loomis does not have the judgement or sobriety to be a GM in the NFL, and at many times there is the appearance that what judgement he may once have had is impaired.

Why did Sean Payton leave? He knew the Saints needed to go through a rebuild and Mickey Loomis would not allow one. He knew the refs have a grudge against the Saints, and without a powerful owner to bring them in line, the draft picks to get an elite young star QB who the NFL could not afford to sabotage with bad calls, or the salary cap space to make big moves, he couldn't overcome that. Mickey Loomis lived in a fantasy world and accepted none of those realities, so he could not solve Sean Payton's problems with a long term plan, only serve his own selfish purposes with short term plans.

But does Mickey Loomis know this? He has no clue. In 2022 he traded away our 2023 first round pick and 2024 second round pick spend an extra draft pick on Trevor Penning, one of the biggest busts of NFL draft history. He always thinks the team can 'win now' when we are clearly not one player away, and ignores the model of other GMs who have won more Super Bowls more recently and recognize the need to go through rebuilding cycles. The Bucs and Rams both won recent Super Bowls, both cut or traded multiple high profile aging veteran players in the 2023 offseason to clean up their salary cap, and despite this rebuilding effort both made the playoffs while Mickey Loomis watched from behind a coffee table of empties. Rebuilding does not take 5 years anymore, its a 1-2 year project, but settling for mediocrity takes an eternity.

But isn't the Saints problem Dennis Allen, Derek Carr, the departed Pete Carmichael, etc? Can't we keep a proven winner and salary cap 'wizard' in Mickey Loomis? No. Mickey Loomis is the common thread. He hired Dennis Allen, a career and still sub .300 head coach. He kept Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator in 2022 when Carmichael asked to step down to a lesser role, and retained Carmichael in 2023 after the offense struggled in 2022. He brought in every member of the offensive line, trading up for Penning, extending Andrus Peat in multiple criticized deals, gave Carlos Ruiz an extension early this season for no reason based off one decent year in a weak division in 2022.

Mickey Loomis, no matter what good hiring decisions of Payton and Brees he was in the room for 17 years ago, is no longer a talented GM. The cap wizardry? Visit the public website overthecap.com. Click on Saints. Click on 2024. Select restructure from the menu under Dead Money & Cap Savings. This public website shows exactly which contracts can be restructured to get under the cap and for how much, no wizards involved, and Mickey Loomis is just the fool who is doing this way too much and ignoring the consequences which we see in the Saints record post Brees/Payton. Other teams cut costs, get under the cap long term, move on from aging players and aging coaches who refuse to adapt to the times, and they often win again earlier than expected. Mickey Loomis can't do that. He only knows what worked once 17 years ago and he won't adapt for the modern NFL. He has built a front office, coaching staff, and roster of old drinking buddies that can't win in the weakest division with the easiest schedule in the NFL despite spending the most money.

The Saints need to rebuild. Mickey Loomis does not know how to rebuild. He needs to be fired, retire, and stay on the couch with his Bacardi and Matlock.

02/18/2023: Well, you can call  me too pessimistic by about 3% I guess, because although I exactly predicted the Saints 7-10 record in 2022, I was one game off and predicted them to go 8-9 in 2023 and they went 9-8. Still, one game off over two years is not bad, and nobody could have predicted that the Saints 2023 schedule would be so historically weak, even more so than expected, facing a host of backup QBs and a Jamarcus Russell caliber year from Panthers rookie Bryce Young. Overall, I think when you take a step back and look at it realistically, the Saints are 7-10 caliber team that benefitted from a historically easy schedule to win a couple of extra games, still managed to miss the playoffs, and did it all while spending more 2024 cap dollars in 2023 than any other team in the league by a wide margin. Mickey Loomis' cap wizardry has truly been magic for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a magical 3rd straight division title, even while rebuilding and cutting their cap burden when the Saints are going 'all in' under Mickey '5 bottled of Beam' Loomis. The Bucs took the dead cap hit from Tom Brady's retirement, and moved on from veteran starters Donovan Smith, LaVonte David, and Leonard Fournette to start a rebuild with a budget QB. The LA Rams, who essentially ended the Saints season with a dominant win going up 30-7 in Week 15 before the Saints closed the margin in garbage time, also made the playoffs while rebuilding and cutting ties with Bobby Wagner, Jalen Ramsey, and Allen Robinson to improve their future salary caps. Mickey Loomis dug the Saints deeper into their cap troubles in 2023 to avoid a rebuild and win now, then watched as two rebuilding piers won now while digging out of their cap problems, and the Saints miss the playoffs with a historically easy schedule. Now the Saints are starting over $80 million over the 2024 cap with the oldest roster in the NFL while the Bucs and Rams, who were in cap trouble until recently, are a combined about $80 million under the 2024 cap and will get better in 2024 while the Saints get worse. This is why Mickey Loomis should be fired today!

The Saints are now $83 million over the 2024 salary cap. They have to get under it by the start of the league year. Post-June-1 cut designations won't help, because those don't deliver their cap savings until June 1 even if designated earlier. The only way for the Saints to get under the 2024 salary cap will be to restructure almost every veteran contract on their roster, guaranteeing that despite some new coaches, the 2024 Saints team will be the 2023 Saints team, but a year older. To begin to get any long term relief, the Saints will have to give up on the 'all-in, win now' philosophy and rely on cheap young players to fill in like the Bucs and Rams did, but Mickey Loomis' track record says he won't do this. The Saints should restructure who they have to in order to comply with the salary cap, then use every remaining dollar of flexibility to get younger and build for the future, but that won't be enough for our resident cap wizard, who will restructure EVERY contract to kick the can on every player and free up enough cash to go all-in on more fading veterans with backloaded contracts to dig us into a bigger hole than ever.

Its not rocket science or wizardry, the Saints can get $20 million or so under the cap if they restructure every veteran contract on their roster to kick the can down the road by committing 80% of their 2024 salaries to bonuses prorated our to future years, and with that $20 million they can sign several fading stars, the next round of Marcus Mayes and Derek Carrs, its not genius its basic math of financing 5 year payment plans that any used card dealer could add up. A restructure just means converting salary to a bonus, and while salary counts against the cap in year 1, the NFL allows a bonus to be prorated over 5 years at 20% per year. But Mickey Loomis knows some fans will buy his textbook restructures as genius if he relies on them more than any other GM. The problem is that to do it he has to refinance virtually all the Saints veteran starters contracts, and every year players get a year older. Cam Jordan is no longer worth what he is paid, and players his age rarely bounce back from off years. Ryan Ramczyk is paid like an all world Tackle, but can no longer be trusted to even take the field, and when he does he is good but not great. Demario Davis had an amazing year but the odds for a 35 year old linebacker to keep performing at that level are incredibly low, and by restructuring his deal the Saints will be pushing out cap dollars to 2028 under his name. Stars like Lattimore and Kamara are also getting to an age where performances at their position tend to decline, and both are showing early signs of that happening. Yet, every year we go 'all-in' we put ourselves in position of paying these players big money for years down the road because we can't afford the dead cap hit to move on, and then we still can't as they further decline. The Saints have some exciting new coaches. In 2025 I expect more exciting new coaches. But new coaches and a new system need new players to make it work, and Mickey Loomis'  system depends on sticking to players for life by constantly restructuring their contracts out of maximum salary cap debt and never being able to afford to cut any veteran. Without the ability to get the players that fit their system and move on from those who don't, new coaches won't solve the Saints problems. That's why we need a new general manager!

11/26/2023: I only watched this game on my phone on and off, because if the team is not worth of Mickey Loomis's attention, which clearly it doesn't have, it's not worthy of mine. All the injuries are not a bug of our system, they are a feature. Receivers get injured because Pete Carmichael's 'what do you want at Starbucks Sean?' offense does not get them in open space, it gets them in crowds. Then Derek Carr underthrows receivers and they take big hits and go down. Meanwhile Carr sits in the pocket forever waiting for the perfect covered receiver to underthrow, while our offensive line has to work a double shift every snap and faces more injuries too as a result. Meanwhile our anemic pass rush puts our secondary in the same position, having to work a double shift on every down because the QB has forever to throw, so injuries to the secondary should come as no surprise.

Mickey Loomis is more of a PR wizard than any kind of football mind, and in PR name recognition is everything. That's why he signed an over the hill washed up Jason Pierre Paul off his couch conveniently days after Saints defensive start Marshon Lattimore was injured. Then Loomis waited while hiding the true nature of Lattimore's injury until the last minute possible for a Friday bad news drop, and placed Lattimore on the IR in the same move as elevating the valuable name in JPP. It was all PR cover, never mind that the player is over the hill and has not exceeded 3 sacks since 2020. This same equation went into a needless early extension for Cameron Jordan when Jordan was already under contract for 2023. At Jordan's age, there was virtually no chance he was going to outplay expectations with his 2023 play so much as to demand an unexpected raise in 2023, he was either going to maintain or decline. But from a PR perspective signing Jordan to a needless early extension was a feel good show of confidence. Now Jordan is on pace for a 3 sack season that would have greatly lowered his asking price, and instead has guaranteed money for 2024 based on his 2022 production. He could have been kept a Saint at fair value, but that did not fit Loomis' PR timing. Jimmy Graham is another story. After being out of the league, he was brought back off his couch and now has 1 reception for 8 yards on the season through Week 12. He is clearly wasting a roster spot that could be the next Brock Purdy or Rashid Shaheed, but he brings good PR for Mickey Loomis' 2023 Saints nostalgia tour. Unfortunately, though Paul, Jordan, and Graham may be testing well on Loomis' PR focus groups, their combined 2 sacks and 8 receiving yards are not getting it done on the field.

Derek Carr's entire $30 million 2024 salary is fully guaranteed. It can be restructured but that just means paying on installment through 2028. If Carr is still on the team on March 1st, which he likely will be, $10 million of his 2025 money becomes fully guaranteed. There are deers in headlights who throw worse than Carr, but he is clearly mediocre in this offensive system and probably in any system we will have during his tenure here. Perhaps with a coach who could get in his head he could be a successful system QB like Goff or Wilson, but there are no signs that the Saints are getting that coach. If the Saints cut Carr this offseason, despite his guaranteed salary, they will limit their ability to make other moves to either make additions and win now (Loomis' pipe dream) or rebuild and move on from other aging vets. But realistically there are some possibilities. The Saints need to move on from Carr because he is clearly not the answer and cannot win without a dominant defense and a team that is dominant along the trenches ala what QBs like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson won with. One option would be to trade Carr while absorbing about $24 million of his $30 million guaranteed salary. A team that does have that kind of defense could see Carr as worth that money for a backup QB or game managing starter if his performance improves down the stretch. Another option could be to restructure Carr's contract immediately after the season to convert his guaranteed salary to a prorated bonus and then declare him a Post-June-1 cut, deferring much of the cap hit to 2025, but I don't know if Carr or his agent would agree to this or see it coming if its done without their consent. Still, he would still get paid and it could be the right move.

I expected the Saints to beat the Falcons today. As aggressively mediocre as the Saints are, the Falcons are worse. Yet, the Falcon's young defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen held Derek Carr's offense without a touchdown for the second year in a row. Meanwhile Ridder outplayed Carr.

If the Saints somehow sneak into the playoffs it will be by edging out the NFC South on the weakest schedule in the division. What would await as the #4 seed would be the #5 seed, for which the Dallas Cowboys hold a strong lead. Most Saints fans rightfully doubt the Derek Carr would physically survive a playoff matchup with Micah Parsons. The Cowboys have a league leading 347 points for to 185 points against for a league leading +162 point differential in the strongest division in the NFC while the  Saints have aa -19 points differential in the worst division in the NFL. If the Saints make the playoffs, they will likely lose this game by 20+ points. But that will earn them a 1st place schedule in 2024 facing the entire NFC North (Eagles and Cowboys), AFC West (Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos), NFC West Champion 49ers, NFC North Champion Chiefs, and AFC North Champion Ravens. What awaits if the Saints squeak into the playoffs with an 8-9 or 9-8 etc record is 12 months of brutal beatings followed by a very high pick in the 2025 Draft IF the Saints resist trading up and actually keep our 2025 1st round draft pick rather than trade up for the next Marcus Davenport in 2024 while joking that the 2025 pick 'will be #32 anyway bro haha.' That's why Mickey Loomis and Dennis Allen need to be fired now! They don't care about our teams future! They will trade up! They will run us into the ground and never take their foot off the pedal!

Some people think Mickey Loomis gave Dennis Allen a great roster and it is all on Dennis Allen for not winning. Clearly there are 5 years of evidence that Dennis Allen is not a quality head coach in the NFL. However, though the Saints do have stars, they are not an elite roster. The Saints roster has its weaknesses in all the wrong places. The Saints strengths are secondary, linebackers, RB, and WRs. The keys to sustained success in the NFL are QB, oline and dline in the trenches, and pass rush. The Saints are above average in none of these areas and below average in many. Our new QB is Drew Bledsoe not Drew Brees, and thats generous to Bledsoe, whose second act with the Bill's was much more impressive than Carr's with the Saints so far. Our oline is makeshift, surviving on stale draft status. The addition of actual competition and benching Penning has improved our oline but only so much, its not a dominant or even average oline. Meanwhile the Saints dline features and over the hill Cam Jordan who no longer has the speed to be a pass rusher, a solid but unspectacular and overpaid Carl Granderson who lacks speed to close the distance, and 2 cogs in the middle to stuff the run. None of our linebackers are big pass rushers either. Sure, we have stars like Kamara, Olave, Lattimore, Davis, etc, but when you are not strong at QB, oline, or pass rush, you can never be an elite team in this league, just an excuse to blame the coaches when the GM built a flawed roster from the start and missed on the picks where it counted.

10/1/2023: Tampa Bay Bucs beat Saints 26-9. Genius visionary head coach Dennis Allen now stands at .298 career winning percentage despite currently competing in the weakest division in the NFL.

2024 Salary Cap Update: $72.6 million over the cap. Most in NFL by $42.9 million, LA Chargers at $29.7 million over. Saints can restructure to save $126.8 million to get under the salary cap by restructuring every contract, but restructuring contracts means a losing team cannot unload its losing players and cannot rebuild, the debt will be shifted and create a similar situation in 2025 and onward, players gain leverage and can prevent ever being subject to franchise tags by demanding void years added to restructure trigger the void just after the deadline to apply the franchise tag has passed. More than any team in the league, the Saints restructure the contracts of most of their veteran starters every year. For example, Michael Thomas' contract has been restructured 5 times in the last 4 years. The result is more and more money that has already been paid to the player is continuously deferred, resulting in a giant dead cap hit if that player is cut, traded, or their contract is allowed to expire without extending them virtually 'forever. For example if the Saints are not serious Super Bowl contenders in 2023, which is plain to see they are not, trading a reasonably productive but aging and injury prone veteran like Michael Thomas with an expiring contract would make sense. But due to those 5 restructure, trading Michael Thomas would create an $18.2 million dead cap hit in 2024. Trades that would be beneficial to the team often cannot be executed because of these short term cap ramifications. The team can't afford to swap in the right players for its system because of the short term cap ramifications. The Saints salary cap management sacrifices everything else to BORROW BORROW BORROW in hopes of never needing to rebuild. But when you can't manage the roster and you no longer have a HOF QB and you can't cut or trade players who underperform or don't fit, you won't ever be able to seriously compete for a title, and it's time to rebuild.

Bust Watch:

Derek Carr - The only QB the Saints shut out in 2022, now their highly paid starting QB Derek Carr, currently ranks 26th in the NFL in QB rating, behind readily available stopgap options like Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Joshua Dobbs, Gardner Minshew, etc. Saints other recent big contract decisions all failing. Cam Jordan - Great person, great player, signed to needless extension when he was already under contract for this year, beginning to show his age with 0.5 sacks in 4 games, on pace for 2 sack season, lowest since his rookie year in 2011.

Jameis Winston - Awkward situation. Only extended for the 2023 season because of the Saints salary cap situation. Ineffective in relief last weak. Wasn't allowed to start even with Carr coming off an injury and rusty. Extending him allowed Mickey Loomis to defer $8.4 million in cash due to future salary caps. Benched former starter, recently injury prone, who clearly needs to work with a more qualified QB guru to have a chance to turn his career around, like his successful run with Sean Payton in 2021 before injury. Will count  $10.6 million against the 2024 salary cap in dead money unless extended, so likely to be extended. Brought into the game for 1 play this week, threw an interception.

Juwan Johnson - Former UDFA, converted receiver, great Rudy story but not a Kelce or Andrews, 1 decent year at TE in historically weak division with no proven chemistry with current QB, needlessly given a big contract this offseason, 0 yards on 0 targets today, averaging 15 yards receiving per game, o TDs.

Cesar Ruiz - Similar needlessly early contract extension based on one decent season in an incredibly weak division after being considered a draft bust. Injured the past 2 games. Current PFF rating for the season 38.2 (Poor to Very Poor). But don't worry, we have him locked in for years.

Carl Granderson - Former UDFA, convicted sex offender, needlessly early contract extension because he recorded 2.5 sacks in the first 2 games of the season as a starter against the powerhouse Carolina Panthers and Tennesse Titans. 0 sacks since signing his big money extension.

Coaching Carousel:

Dennis Allen - Career winning percentage at .298. Stated after the game that he was not interested in changing play calling responsibilities  despite anemic offense. Still not a leader. Getting less and less out of players.

Pete Carmichael - Former Sean Payton coffee boy given a fancy title as a reward for never missing a starbucks run. Saints last in the NFL in scoring since last November. Saints have not scored 30 points in a game since 10/22/22 loss to the Cardinals.

Doug Marrone - Our weakest assistant coach. Another former coffee boy for Sean Payton like Pete Carmichael. Hasn't evolved in over a decade. Five of six Saints major offensive lineman are down in 2023 under Marrone. Saints oline PFF scores. Ryan Ramczyk 67.9 in 2023 vs 77.9 in 2022. Erik McCoy 66.6 in 2023 vs 61.2 in 2022, Cesar Ruiz 38.2 in 2023 vs 56.6 in 2022, James Hurst 57.5 in 2023 vs 63.2 in 2022, Andrus Peat 48.3 in 2023 vs 50.6 in 2022, Trevor Penning 49.4 in 2023 vs 73.6 in 2022 (in limited time).